I admit it. Watching the death-by-a-thousand-cuts of the Republican Party (on the state and federal level) has been mildly amusing for us professional cynics, much in the same way it was fun to watch the womanizing, arrogant, all-conference high-school quarterback descend into post-matriculation depression and a dead-end career as a mall security guard.
But don't mistake me for a dyed-in-the-wool liberal. I actually voted in the Republican primary this year (my voting record is near 50/50, leaning slightly in favor of the GOP). But not for McCain. I was a foot-soldier in the Ron Paul Revolution, although I had a much more passive role than the Mountain Dew-chugging pencil-necks who helped give Paul a platform for his ideas.
In the wake of the housing and credit crises, I've often wondered whether Ron Paul has been vindicated. Although the media sheepishly ignores this, the answer should be a resounding "yes." Paul's predictions regarding our standing in foreign affairs were well-documented during the primary campaign, and it is regrettable that his Republican counterparts used him as little more than a foil to appease the so-called neoconservative element of the party. But what is really striking is Rep. Paul predicted the housing bubble back in 2002 - at the height of 100% consumer financing, and skyrocketing market values. To
read what Paul said is more than prescient; it's eerily Nostradamus-like.
I remain of the belief that there is a tang of irony that Paul - and not Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin - was viewed as the wing-nut among national Republican office-seekers. History will be quite kind to Paul in the end, while Huckabee and Palin are destined to end their political careers penning inconsequential memoirs cloaked in religious platitudes.
I thought it timely, therefore,
to revisit an essay I published last year, before the first vote was cast in the Iowa caucus. This version is slightly different in that I deleted the footnotes.
Phenomenon
by Ken Vanko
(O.P.D. 10-23-07)
By the time you read this, Ron Paul may very well have dropped out of the race for President. I have no idea when, or if, this will happen. He could decide to push forward way past 11/08. But for now, he has firmly entrenched himself at the bottom of virtually every national and state poll. And he is utterly flush with cash and a legion of rabid supporters,
and there is no sign of this movement slowing down. In the diverse, fertile landscape that is "The American Electorate," Paul's faithful followers are often described as crabgrass - a sprawling collection of irritants, oddballs, beatniks, conspiracy theorists and niggardly whiners. There is some truth in this, depending who you encounter and where.
Analyzing and dissecting Ron Paul’s quixotic campaign in an essay with a self-imposed limit of a couple thousand words is not easy. His run for the White House bears no similarities to that of any previous single-issue candidate, such as Alan Keyes. Having been elected ten times to the House of Representatives,
he is not a lunatic fringe politician, like erstwhile candidate Morry Taylor, nor is he running a hopeless campaign solely to bring attention to a discrete political interest group, much like Gary Bauer did for the Family Research Council or Jesse Jackson did for the Rainbow Coalition.
But it is beyond dispute that Paul for President is a definite movement of some indeterminate sort, and it sure is damn fun. This is so because not only has the campaign managed to defy conventional wisdom, but also because in the span of literally months it has begun to convey a sense of hope that maybe – just maybe – we’re on the right track here as our political system starts to evolve beyond 18th century traditions. But spare me the "politics of personal destruction" complaints, however. Politics has always been a nasty, testy game not for the faint of heart, and it has at times resembled Middle Ages bloodsport. To listen to politicians lament being torn apart unfairly and attacked mercilessly is side-splittingly funny.
My thesis is that the Paul candidacy is almost certain to have some long-term terrain-shifting impact on GOP politics. Make no mistake, I harbor no grand illusion that this cult hero has any chance at pulling off even a 10% showing in any caucus or primary contest next spring (possible exception = Iowa, see Pat Robertson 1988), and I don’t mean to suggest as such. But to judge the impact of Paul’s candidacy on the Republican Party (or its platform) solely in a vacuum and solely based on results would be an utter mistake.
For starters, you need to know that Ron Paul (practicing ob/gyn) has won, according to viewer polls, almost every single Republican debate in the 2008 campaign (e.g., during the May 3 debate at the Reagan Library, Paul beat a crowded field with 43% of the vote in online polling, though M. Romney bested him in the sub-category of "Best Dressed"; detractors point to a viral marketing campaign underway in the Paul campaign, and while fund-raising numbers seem to undercut this argument, it's still one helluva viral marketing campaign deserving of your auteur's utmost admiration)
; that his fundraising is nearly on par with early frontrunner John McCain; that his campaign website draws more hits than McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani; that almost every one of his financial supporters is an individual; that his contributions mostly come in amounts of less than $200; that he has been viewed on YouTube over 4.5 million times; that he won an Alabama straw poll for Republicans with 81% of the vote; that he has more YouTube subscribers than any candidate (including online media darling, Barack Obama); that “Ron Paul” is one of the top 10 internet search terms, rivaling train-wreck sluts Paris Hilton and Britney Spears; and, just to put all these salient facts in some sort of insane paradoxical context, that he had the lowest name recognition of any candidate when he embarked on the presidency just 8 months ago. And his poll numbers still barely scratch 5%
.
[Note: Even a cursory surfing of the ‘net reveals a pretty strong band of Paul followers who believe that the media conglomerates are in some sort of vague cahoots to ignore Paul’s strong poll numbers, blowing them off as misleading, fraudulent and untrustworthy. Part of the explanation hinges on Paul’s positions regarding monetary policy and the impact a Paul campaign might have on New York bankers who control the media empires. It’s all very sketchy and far-fetched, but the Paul folks have a point here that is both odd and kind of fascinating in an Oliver Stone-ish sort of way.]To harmonize this collection of odd factoids would strain the old noggin beyond this amateur pundit’s capacity. This is not some sort of movie-star- or athlete-turned-politician running on good looks or red-meat politically divisive issues. His appearance could be mistaken for a mid-morning regular at IHOP, and his policy platforms are steeped in the minutiae of constitutional theory and monetary policy, political terrain which sees virtually no foot-traffic. Paul eschews catchy sound-bites and populist, heart-tugging messages for what amounts to a lecture, really – a sobering lesson on the tough choices Americans (particularly the next generation) must make.
Political talking heads have struggled to grasp the parameters of the candidacy and have failed to find a convincing precedent from elections past. The most common analogy to Paul’s candidacy is that of Howard Dean back in 2004. But the comparison does not work for several reasons. Governor Dean was well-known and respected among party insiders, advocated fairly mainstream positions, eventually endorsed John Kerry and parlayed his fundraising and early campaign success into a chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee. The fact that Dean spoke out against the war early and often was fortuitous, a stroke of political luck based entirely on good timing.
Ron Paul won’t be endorsing anyone – as he has confirmed in debates – and is unlikely to find himself as a party insider at the conclusion of this campaign. He already is one of the most reviled congressmen by right-wing political groups, and his candidacy is viewed as a distraction and potentially damaging to the health of other candidates. He speaks on principle, not the hype of currying favor with the next administration, and he is quick to point out the lack of principle of his GOP brethren.
The Dean comparison further suffers because Paul, by a strict modern interpretation, is not really a traditional Republican, at least not in the same way Dean is the quintessential Democrat. He (Paul), to be sure, is often classified as a Libertarian, perhaps rightly so since he ran for President in 1988 as the Libertarian candidate, garnering over 430,000 votes. But if Paul is truly a Libertarian and espouses its ideals and core beliefs, how can his candidacy potentially shape the long-term health and direction of the GOP, particularly given the widely-held assumption that Libertarians are just minor, fringe politicians? The answer is quite simple. Libertarians founded this country, and their broad policy principles still jive with the GOP’s values. Thomas Jefferson and many of the Founding Fathers stood for what now are known as Libertarian principles. Republicans are quick to heap praise on judges who are strict constructionists, and this really is the same theoretical underpinning as Libertarianism. A Libertarian, it can be argued, is simply a Republican who refuses to compromise his principles.
So Paul is really without a true comparator, past or present. To understand the appeal of Congressman Ron P. as a candidate, you need to realize that principle above politics is what guides him. Paul’s entire political philosophy is based on the concept of liberty and minimal government intrusion. Put differently, we as a people derive our liberty from the Constitution, and the government derives its authority from the Constitution, so for the love of God, why don’t we just follow the Constitution? (An exasperated Ron P. told candidate Mitt R. in an October 2007 debate exchange about declarations of war to "read the Constitution for once.")
One way to articulate Paul’s philosophy is that there is no real “right” to have a central government in a federal system adjudicate and decide hot-button, contentious issues. Think gay rights, abortion, same-sex adoption, school prayer, vouchers, obscenity. Not easy stuff on which to gain consensus in various regions where values and ways of life are just so darn diverse and different. So, according to Paul and conventional Libertarian thought, why not uphold the Founding Fathers’ intent and leave it to each community to decide what is right and just and to let local governmental units figure it out on a case by case basis? If you don’t like what your local community is doing, just move somewhere else. This is the essence of the Paul agenda and a snapshot into how he thinks.
[Ed. Note: That’s why Roe v. Wade is viewed as such an abomination. Federalizing this issue on a macro level is the core of the problem, not the abortion rate or the decline in our values. It’s the fact that an omnipresent federal system is telling us how the issue is going to be resolved. You might have noticed that abortion is a pretty tough nut to crack; guaranteeing that right to everyone in every community seems contrary to the words of the Constitution.]
While his personal liberty message clearly resonates, one of Paul’s signature (and less well-known) campaign issues is the irksome political thicket of … monetary policy. Not fiscal policy. Monetary policy.
[Note: FP = taxes and spending (how the government spends the money it collects); MP = management of the money supply and use of money to trade in foreign markets. Riveting shit.] Paul’s non-pareil obsession with monetary policy as a core campaign issue actually caused him to enter politics in 1971 when President Nixon advocated that the U.S. dollar should depart from the gold standard.
[Another Note:We start to get incredibly complex, mundane, theoretical and esoteric here, but the gist of the gold standard as a theory of monetary policy is fairly simple. Gold is easy to identify and divide, and you can use paper as a proxy for it so that you’re not hauling around assloads of gold to the Target or Wal-Mart. Not too bad, really, except that we’re dealing with a global economy and we’ve been away from the gold standard now for some time. The most convincing argument in support of the gold standard is that simply printing money leads to inflation. A second argument, now in vogue because we’re like totally screwed in the international trade arena, is that gold is an easy fixed medium of currency in cross-border bartering. In other words, the Chinese won’t fuck us over anymore.]Monetary policy being such a hot-button issue, Paul dropped the full-time baby-delivery practice and got into politics. Ever since that time, he has been voting against spending bills, emasculating NAFTA as improvidently “managed trade”, chastising the government for intruding on health care and railing against the expansion of government agencies.
His campaign is really not based on one overriding issue, like the Dean anti-war candidacy, but the sum of his principled positions and his wild popularity throws a big monkey wrench in the way his party has communicated with voters, particularly in recent years. It is one thing for candidates to bicker over voting records and slight permutations in policy proposals, but quite another to call into question the legitimacy of an entire party and its platforms and to tell them this with blunt, straight talk. Simply put, Paul’s supporters view him as a true defender of the Constitution and an honest voice who is telling it like it is.
A genuine movement is underway in many states to uninvite him to the debates and to basically shut him the hell up.
Paul, in fact, is far from a centrist like Dean. To many, the Dean analogy has some appeal because both candidates were effective at using the internet to raise money. However, this appeal is superficial at best. His fundraising ability and the means by which he has achieved it is due in large part to the fact that he, like Dean, appeals to young, internet-savvy voters. Aside from an aura of emotional instability (there is a fuzzy line between emotional instability and political passion),
that is about the extent of where the Paul-Dean comparison lies. Paul – “Dr. No” to some – is the definition of a contrarian, a mantra that Dean never really could claim.
Evidence of Paul’s contrarian views is legion, and his popularity despite such views actually portends a major shift in how voters want to be educated and told exactly how issues impact them. Ron P.’s congressional district is largely agrarian, and he opposes farm subsidies;
the flood magnet city of Corpus Christi lies within his district, and he is stridently against federally funded flood insurance. In a state that is legendary for steamrolling inmates through Death Row, he opposes the federal death penalty. If legislation is not specifically authorized by the Constitution, he won’t vote for it. No exceptions. A Republican, Paul voted against the Patriot Act and sees no need for the Department of Homeland Security. He voted against the 2002 Iraq War Resolution, opposes the war on drugs and wants to expand “don’t ask, don’t tell” to heterosexuals.
[Note: Is that possible?]
There is no question that Dr. Paul has generated an enormous amount of goodwill in his home district. He remains popular largely because his anti-tax policy resonates, he logs hundreds of miles personally visiting voters, he still deliveries babies for his constituents, he spends incredible amounts of time attending local events and writing condolence cards and attending graduations and doing all sorts of decent, traditional, feel-good deeds that people just seem to like. But his popularity has gained elsewhere too, particularly among young voters who, frankly, want government to just leave them alone. They’ve had enough of imperialistic endeavors and don’t want another one with Iran; they’re fed up with being talked to like they are idiots; they are terrified of getting drafted; they want the internet to be a carefree playground; and they don’t understand why taxes are so prevalent
and why marijuana is so illegal. Paul’s candidacy, in this respect, seems to be a revitalization of the basic principle that liberty means, for lack of a more eloquent term, the right to have government get off our collective ass. His candidacy stands for brutal honest communication rather than fear-mongering and vote-pandering.
[Yet Another Note: Paul might tell you that young voters appreciate the fact that he is telling them point-blank not to get real comfy with the idea of a social security paycheck once the nest is empty in about 40 years or so.]So is the fervor surrounding Paul’s candidacy some kind of protest statement? Not likely. Real people are throwing real dollars at this thing, and the theoretical underpinning behind the Paul movement may be that conservatives are simply put-off by a collection of candidates whose policy proposals defy conservative thinking and whose temperament on core red-meat issues can be described, at best, as “malleable.” It does not strain credulity to conclude that Republicans have grown the size and scope of the federal government, from the Department of Homeland Security to far-reaching and intrusive education and “competitiveness” initiatives. Paul will tell you that a real conservative seeks his or her guiding principles in the text of the Constitution, and that the states have good reason to be fearful of an encroaching federal presence. His outrage and disgust can be viewed as predictable among true conservatives, and his hands-off approach on social issues actually seems like the best compromise in an intractable war between the Liberal Left and the Conservative Right.
[The Last of What Have Become Annoying Notes: A reference should be made here to the somewhat bipolar nature of the GOP – the more libertarian wing which wants government to buzz off and which resides primarily in the Mountain West, and the more fundamentalist wing which pontificates over social issues and which finds its home primarily in the Deep South.]
But aside from the fact that his positions have a basis outside unreliable opinion polls, Paul’s lasting legacy may be the revelation that voters are actually smart enough to take their medicine and digest news that is not easy to handle. Republicans have always viewed themselves as having a more grounded, principled basis for their agenda, and presumably they would be receptive to a tough-love message. They would criticize the Democrats by saying that they refuse to tell voters that government cannot solve every problem, and that it is not really an agenda to just throw one federal program after another against the wall in the hopes that something sticks. There certainly is some appeal to the fact that this macro solution tends to reflect porous platitudes cobbled together on an ad hoc, reactionary basis from a bunch of pompous potentates. But Paul is telling the Republicans that they have abandoned the moral high ground and that they are guilty of the same thing. Put differently, Republicans can no longer fool voters by misleading them about foreign and domestic policy adventures and abandoning the spirit of the Constitution. In reality, they may already have. The only question is whether they will learn.
This essay
has been posted previously on The Rusty Wheel.